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Old 04-25-2016 | 09:33 PM
  #2641  
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Next bid will put it at 2010 so it's at 8 but very close to being 6, there's only 80 guys from 2010 so another bid will make it 5, it will sit at 5 for some time as 2011 was a huge hiring year, however once 2011 is done which will take time, the guys hired today aren't very far from the 2011 numbers. Considering the climate of the industry we most likely will be better off over the next 3 years compared to our peers. Add in the flow to AA and time is finally on our side.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 01:37 AM
  #2642  
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Originally Posted by dfwflyboy
what happens if Envoy can't staff the growth or attrition. What happens if they start to become like Republic and cancel flights. Will AA continue to flow them at 30/month? or will the flows drip to a halt? Just wondering...

There will be a point where flowing will start to cancel flights...it's inevitable. Most likely will happen before new hires get to flow...Think about it.
What did AAG do the past couple of years with the planes we had that we couldn't staff? Did they stop the flow?
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Old 04-26-2016 | 01:56 AM
  #2643  
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? Hasn't envoy had 65 hr lines on average the last year or so because the planes were given away too fast? Not a staffing issue
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Old 04-26-2016 | 03:30 AM
  #2644  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
A valid consideration that some want others to disregard. While April's hire numbers have been close to that consistently needed on a monthly basis for the next 5-6 years if todays class of Charlie Buckets plan to flow at the projected time, one month is not 66-72 months (5.5-6 years). The undeniable fact is that if Envoy cannot get 35+ new-hires each and every month for the next 66-72 months, it shrinks and shrinking airlines need fewer captains and also lose flying assignments.

It would be interesting to find out how many of this and next months new-hires are pipeline pilots which could be expected to elevate class counts periodically around typical end of semester times. It would also be interesting to see how many of those pilots will still be at Envoy a year from now. Envoy has to essentially pull off a long-term miracle to ensure present pilots flow to AA in the projected time frame and that cannot be denied.
Great, we are so glad that you come back to grace us with your presence along with your conspiracy theories. You do realize that you don't work here right?

Many out there are upset because the Envoy flow is working as advertised and pilots at other regional carriers compare themselves with an Envoy pilot and see that pilot heading to AA. Others are jealous as they spent 15 years or so at Envoy during the lost decade and had to wait till their 50's to flow. Most of the guys at Envoy now are late 20's, early 30's and will make it to AA by their mid 30's at the latest which gives them a full career at the largest major airline in the world.

Just get over it. The flow is working. We just had 35 new hires for April and are projecting even more for May. It seems that pilot candidates out there have gotten the word and are headed to Envoy as they realize that is the only way to AA. PSA and PDT also have flows but they are a drop in the bucket when you compare the numbers Envoy flows.

We are almost to 2010 hires for the next upgrade. The upgrade will continue dropping quickly after that. Yes, Envoy is the place to be.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 03:42 AM
  #2645  
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When will that next bid be Ric?
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Old 04-26-2016 | 04:09 AM
  #2646  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
Yes, many indeed will do that in the future, but with Envoys below average upgrade times, Delta and United might be a tougher road with no 121 PIC. But that is the double-edge sword for Envoy as it only increases monthly attrition requiring even more pilots to keep the flow engine also running at that rate required to meet flow projections or...........again, Envoy shrinks and returns to an existence presently occupied by other regionals and one occupied by Envoy in the past.

It all really has to work perfectly and for over half a decade for today's 26 drops in the Envoy bucket to make it over the brim.
You're out of touch with the legacies hiring realities. Talking to various United and Delta recruiters, all of the told me PIC is not required. They look at the overall picture of the person, not only PIC.

Delta specifically want pilots that have been loyal to their companies, more than 4 years in the same place. It doesn't matter if you're an FO or CA. They don't care if you're an FO because the upgrade times are being high, as far as you upgrade if you can you're good to go.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 04:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Bigpimppilot
? Hasn't envoy had 65 hr lines on average the last year or so because the planes were given away too fast? Not a staffing issue
I think that had a lot to do with the projected attrition. They gave away a lot of flying in anticipation of not being able to staff it. Then attrition slowed and we had more pilots than they expected. Now management is trying to bring more flying back in house and line values are over gurantee again.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 04:44 AM
  #2648  
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Originally Posted by PilotJ3
You're out of touch with the legacies hiring realities. Talking to various United and Delta recruiters, all of the told me PIC is not required. They look at the overall picture of the person, not only PIC.

Delta specifically want pilots that have been loyal to their companies, more than 4 years in the same place. It doesn't matter if you're an FO or CA. They don't care if you're an FO because the upgrade times are being high, as far as you upgrade if you can you're good to go.
Exactly. I went to the delta WAI hiring briefing and they touched on the subject of long upgrade times at regionals. Arnie specifically mentioned envoy and Expressjet and he said they looked at other things in lieu of TPIC times. An example is that they use your CFI time in lieu of TPIC. That's not to say that it's more important, it's just that they know what's going on and they look into other factors. United understands this as well. I know of a few envoy and xjt perma FOs who were hired or interviewed at UAL and dal.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 08:21 AM
  #2649  
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Originally Posted by cr700
We just had 35 new hires for April and are projecting even more for May.
Straight from the mouth of a gentleman in ENY recruitment over on EL, they have no idea how many will be in the May classes. In fact, he said they don't even know if the first May class will be in the teens.

Check your facts before you spout out unverified information.
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Old 04-26-2016 | 08:42 AM
  #2650  
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Originally Posted by Skyvector
Where do you keep getting this information from? I'm not sure about cr700 but the rest of us have been crystal clear with the numbers and projections from the beginning. In fact, here is a post by Cujo from November 2015:



As you can see, he even states that worst case for 2016 would be 225 flows depending on the number of furloughed AA pilots who return. I've said the same thing. Nobody here is implying anything that is false. On the other hand, you have people like ag386 and eaglefly who have been claiming from the start that the flow will never work. They base their claims on X number of new hires in the past. But now we are getting 25+ new hires. May will be similar if not more from the numbers I saw. So their argument just sunk to the bottom of the sea.

Why don't you ask those two why they have been lying?
Someone posing as management has been lying and or misleading potential new hires with pie in the sky projections. I can't ignore that. This mentality is similar to what we have going on with our current VP of flights ops spouting a 2.5 year upgrade. It won't happen. He started saying it 12 months ago and we've barely moved our upgrade during that time. Currently we need to upgrade around 600 in the next 18 months for his projections to work. It won't happen! I have reason to take exception as it's our coworkers who are duped and I sit next to them in the cockpit as they are realizing that they were lied to and it's their wives and kids who pay for it.

Theres no need to lie or mislead with the goings on here. When AAG wants something different for or from us they will make it so. Until then no amount of lying will move the needle here. The word is out on the street that envoy has had issues relating to employee relations on this exact issue and it continues daily with our RSV situation that the company refuses to address because its working great for them now and horrible for us. Same with the industry worst schedules...great for them, horrible for us. 20% of the ORD lines in May are commutable! That's unacceptable. Our company does not care and its business as usual. Parker has even told his middle managers at the recent Leadership conference they need to buy into the new style of employee relations at AAG or they will lose the airline(again). So I feel the need to call someone out when they start proclaiming 360 flows when the reality will be most likely be half that.

As for trolls who post here spouting nonsense I don't waste my time.
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