You must get your math from ag386. It will not take an envoy pilot hired today 10 years to flow. The last time the union ran the numbers, it was a 4.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow. With all the new aircraft coming back, that upgrade time will be even lower. Many things can happen in the next few years, but to suggest that an envoy pilot will take 10 years to flow is as preposterous as the 2.5 year upgrade claim.

 

There a reliable source, the union. Ha

 

Envoy is not netting more airplanes. They might be right this very moment but, As they bring on the new EJET you don't think they'll start parking those tired old bucket of bolt 145's? Keep drinking that Kool Aid brotha and believe what they are telling you.

 

what happens if Envoy can't staff the growth or attrition. What happens if they start to become like Republic and cancel flights. Will AA continue to flow them at 30/month? or will the flows drip to a halt? Just wondering...

There will be a point where flowing will start to cancel flights...it's inevitable. Most likely will happen before new hires get to flow...Think about it.

 

Something to consider when touting 6 year flows: how does an airline keep instructors, check airman, and APDs? While the need to keep attracting new hires to keep the gravy train going has been pointed out many, many times (and is probably the true weak point of any flow program currently), there will be a point where an airline could become a victim of it's own success.

 

I'll tell you what happens. Envoy pilots get hired off the street at Delta, United, and American just like pilots at any other regional.

 

A valid consideration that some want others to disregard. While April's hire numbers have been close to that consistently needed on a monthly basis for the next 5-6 years if todays class of Charlie Buckets plan to flow at the projected time, one month is not 66-72 months (5.5-6 years). The undeniable fact is that if Envoy cannot get 35+ new-hires each and every month for the next 66-72 months, it shrinks and shrinking airlines need fewer captains and also lose flying assignments.

It would be interesting to find out how many of this and next months new-hires are pipeline pilots which could be expected to elevate class counts periodically around typical end of semester times. It would also be interesting to see how many of those pilots will still be at Envoy a year from now. Envoy has to essentially pull off a long-term miracle to ensure present pilots flow to AA in the projected time frame and that cannot be denied.

 

Yes, many indeed will do that in the future, but with Envoys below average upgrade times, Delta and United might be a tougher road with no 121 PIC. But that is the double-edge sword for Envoy as it only increases monthly attrition requiring even more pilots to keep the flow engine also running at that rate required to meet flow projections or...........again, Envoy shrinks and returns to an existence presently occupied by other regionals and one occupied by Envoy in the past.

It all really has to work perfectly and for over half a decade for today's 26 drops in the Envoy bucket to make it over the brim.

 

How in the world does Envoy have a below average upgrade time??? What kind of spiked Kool Aid are you drinking?

 

Below average as in, longer than the line at the DMV.

What is it now? 6 -7 year upgrade?