Lemme help u out there buddy: “/s”

 

So, again....

Let's say you own a burger joint. There are 5 good burger joints that offer the same in terms of quality, speed of service, etc. You're not a gourmet burger joint nor are you exclusively value menu (super small White Castle type). You offer a decent 1/8' burger grilled with condiments. Then, you find out your most similar competitor (that has burger joints in the cities you do - as well as in other cities that you don't) goes out of business. Just how much of their lost business should you expect?

This is a somewhat common question/problem found in business schools everywhere. And the answer is - in most of them (at least the good ones) - IT DEPENDS. The factors involved are so numerous and changing that it could never be predicted.

F9 could see a drastic increase in similar markets such as DFW, ATL, MCO, LAS and maybe even MIA/FLL area. Or, Spirit going bankrupt MAY actually hurt given that now, other airlines DON'T have to price match NK anymore in markets that F9 doesn't serve (allowing them to increase prices back in those markets and reduce prices in F9 only markets). Additionally, if NK gives up gate space in DFW, LAS, MCO and ATL, does anyone really think F9 will be the highest bidder?

Just about EVERY market starts out w/ tons of competition and is whittled down to those better managed and invested in. As smaller businesses die off, it usually ends up helping the LARGER ones the most.

NK going bankrupt is worse than us merging with them...

 

I agree with the above.

Also, the question must be asked: "WHY did Spirit have this problem" / "Why did the burger joint go out of business"

If it was just mismanagement, and a gamble of one meat provider, OK.

If it was mismanagement (who hasn't been changed out), AND burgers are no longer "in style" or desired by the consumer, then we have a problem

When Palm (the company who created the Palm Pilot) went out of business, was Blackberry, then owned by RIMM, happy? Yes of course. Basically the only game left in town was Blackberry, in the personal device arena. (To be clear, Palm went out of business because every was "going Blackberry" anyway)

But when Palm folded, Blackberry's "only competitor" was gone. Time to celebrate! Champagne and music filled the air over at Blackberry HQ.

However, another product, with different features, and a cultish fan base, soon took over. It was called the Iphone.

Barry previously, on webcasts, has said "we [Frontier] really don't compete with the Big-3. We compete with Greyhound."

Time will tell if Barry's no wi-fi, no VIP lounge, no deep international product will not be done in by the airline version of the Iphone.

 

if we really do compete with Greyhound. We need WiFi otherwise the prospect of sitting in a bus watching TikTok’s while sitting in traffic is better than our 2+ hour delays and zero WiFi and only other option next Friday at 2-7am.

 

Do you think they don’t want to offer frequency? You think they’re just up there burning $100 bills? We don’t have the size to offer frequency. That’s something that comes with scale much larger than a 2000 pilot airline.

 

Idk we had three flights a day everywhere we went with few exceptions in 2007. We were about a quarter of the size

Wallstreet thinks this news is good for us fwiw.

 

what? If Barry didn't try to clone Big-3's network, and instead focus on core productive ULCC cities like he should, we could offer frequency. He proudly touts all the Airbus orders.

What happened to the prior "we will go to smaller, under served airports" strategy? Oh wait, half the C-suite bailed out and quit Frontier.

Instead he claims "network expansion" is adding Omaha at 2 flight a week. https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontie...ing-fall-2025/

Barry's network planning strategy is basically go to delta.com and click on "where we fly" and decide that is where he will fly also.

Problem is the other guy has wi-fi onboard, lounges, an alliance with international partners, etc. Oh and billions in the bank to just snuff Barry out as soon as his incessant buzzing near Delta's earlobe becomes too annoying. Barry is fighting for the Big-3, premium customer with an ULCC product, in Big-3's backyard.

Guess how this is gonna work out? Go open a pop-up hamburger stand in McDonald's parking lot, and see how long you last. Your only value proposition is "we are cheaper than McDonalds". Guess what, people drove to McDonalds to buy McDonalds. Open the same stand across town, across from a truck stop or gas station, and see if that is more effective.

 

so it’s just painfully obvious that we need to increase frequency and we can do it, yet they aren’t doing it. Probably because they want to burn this company down right? Makes a lot of sense

as for having a lot of frequency in 2007.. right before BANKRUPTCY.. also an excellent argument.

 

We absolutely CAN (and used to) offer better frequency. Scale should be based on the # of airplanes (and crews) that you have and NOT on # of destinations. F9 is 1/2 the size of JB but flies to almost the same # of destinations.

List of largest airlines in North America - Wikipedia (scroll down to rank by destinations)

There are MANY issues w/ F9 - network might be the biggest...

 

This is gamemanship by Barry - we do NOT compete w/ Greyhound any more than Delta or anyone else. People riding the bus are usually doing so for different reasons than flying - most people who have that amount of time to waste in travel will just drive themselves.

The national bus system serves over 1500 destinations and have even more pick up/drop off points. Those who are seeking cheap one way (or round trip) leisure/school transportation WHO DON'T HAVE A CAR are primarily the only ones who are taking the bus and there aren't as many of those that you would think. And still, they have to do the math. Someone who lives in Chicago but goes to college at Penn St (w/o a car) and wants to go home for vacation might weigh the costs of finding a ride to the airport (in PHL), flying to Chi, then taking the subway home vs taking a bus that might pick up and drop off only a few miles from campus and their house. Right now, that Greyhound ticket (State College, PA to one of the Chicago bus stations on Nov 22 - just in time for Thanksgiving) is $149 and takes 20 hours.

Barry may not be able to run a very good airline but he is NOT dumb...