But cancelling flight attendant classes doesn't make any sense... that probably means there's something going on... they leave in droves... can't wait to get calls at 3am for a 5am show for a puj turn they "have no one to for"

 

Exactly. IPO announcement, then basically a hiring freeze for 6-12 months? After they offered early outs to the FAs?

I don't know about you, but if there was a prime NK/F9 merger opportunity...you are looking at it square in the eyes. The longer they put it off (growth overlap), the more it'll cost them in synergistic losses.

WN is gearing up to do redeyes, to try and stomp out the ULCC market share loss. Spirit's and Frontier's survival is dependant on a unified effort vs undercutting each other. Both companies know this very well. They are both stalling CBA negotiations, most likely to lengthen the process with a JCBA reboot in 18 months.

There's my speculation for the day.

 

But I thought the USA ULCC market potential was majorly UNDERtapped!?!? So how could NK and F9 be pressured into trying to undercut one another? Maybe on some routes... but on the whole??? And what purpose does it serve to merge when you are so greatly profitable alone? Especially with an IPO on the horizon, a Spirit merger just doesn't make sense to me.

 

With the current division of the US ULCC market between NK and F9, they are profitable. But you have to factor in the WN effort going forward. They won't sit idly by as they continue to lose passengers. Hence their new training facility, huge hiring numbers the next few years, and their net aircraft losses. They are setting up their operation for higher utilization. Both their FAs and pilots say the same thing. Redeyes are coming.

It wouldn't take but a few months of WN paralleling routes/times/fares in an effort to make F9 or NK drop the route. They know we can't afford to fly planes at 75% capacity.

I hate to sound pessimistic. But it's necessary to evaluate all aspects. It's cheaper for WN to go to war then to buy a merged NK/F9. Especially since they have no use for 120+ leased 320s.

I'm just throwing darts here, I could be way off. But from a long term survival standpoint, there is strength in numbers.

 

Touché salesman! I Didn't think of that!

 

3 months out is the furthest any airline management can realistically plan for anything. Don't get too excited.

 

I see what you're saying.

Well at least upgrades at WN will drop below 10 years now.

Oh by the way a WN gate agent told me they were taking our KDEN hanger - FWIW - Lol!

 

As long as several of you are voicing your speculation, I'll add another possibility (much more of a long shot).

Frontier's announcement of an impending IPO, followed with the intended purchase of a new headquarters building in Denver, prompted a major player (I'm speculating Southwest or United) to make a respectable offer to outright purchase Frontier before these events happened.

The potential buyer has asked Frontier to suspend hiring (to more favor the potential buyer's current seniority list employees in a future SLI) until the offer/sale can be evaluated, and/or completed.

 

I don't agree with any of that on Southwest. We are both however throwing darts.

Southwest is no longer a low cost carrier. SWA has the third highest fares in the industry and have limited ancillary revenue streams. No bag fees for example. SWA rising labor costs will continue to drive their ticket prices higher. They also continue to drive themselves out of the leisure passenger market.

Good reads:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielr.../#498a10a71f8e

https://www.fool.com/investing/2016/...ill-drive.aspx

Is Spirit Airlines a Real Threat to Southwest? (LUV,SAVE) | Investopedia

Merger wise I think F9 and Spirit make all the sense in the world and would be a good match up. We're barely starting to overlap mainly due to both catering to leisure travelers. i.e. LAS as an example. There's still plenty of room in the US for ULLC growth.

Spirit airlines is now going directly after SWA. NKs growth for 2017 is based on going head to head with SWA on the majority of its new routes, 14 out of 20 new routes.
I'm not trying to take away what SWA has accomplished as a LCC. My opinion, although we're serious competition, I think they have bigger fish to fry than F9 and NK. They have to compete with a much larger picture now.

Here's a good read on Spirits tactic going against SWA for 2017.
With this taking place it'll be time for the rubber to meet the road. We'll see first hand who prevails I suppose.

Spirit Airlines Takes on Southwest Airlines in Its Next Round of Expansion | Markets & Stocks | journalstar.com

 

Trowser - you ever mess with crypto currencies?

As much reading/research as you do, you could be millionaire within a few years.

Assuming you aren't already one that is.

By the way I'm complimenting you incase it isn't clear.