https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-un...650045521.html

Since you want to to bring up United, why don’t we discuss with a little more context. They just had a bid come out that gets everyone mostly back into their old seats according to a thread in their forum. Back to the 5 year captain and such. Even with all the international that everyone keeps saying will take longer to recover, even with their large business travel that will take longer to recover, even with all their widebodies that are idle, even with their other parked planes, they appear to be doing the opposite of considering furloughs. They pulled down the most the fastest, and now they appear to have the wheels in motion to be posturing for the recovery.

Robin H has said they are also working under the assumption that travel will significantly recover by the end of this year. There is almost zero chance of a furlough right now, and anytime soon. If the company did it before the end of summer, it would be the company cutting off its nose to spite its face, or due to continued sustained demand for the 2nd half of the year, which they will know about by the summer. But if the revenue still sucks by then, even with this AIP, they can still furlough in October. So what does it matter?

Realistically, because furloughs cost so much money, and because there’s such a long payoff period (at least 6-9 months) before its viable, and a long lag to displace & train both directions, there will be further negotiations to mitigate them if it comes down to it. Right now, that’s not even a conversation topic, other than being used as a sound bite with scary numbers by ALPA to sell the AIP.

 

Gosh I hope you’re right, but do you really think there’s almost a zero percent chance that they don’t furlough anyone? That’s a fairly bold statement while we burn 8m/day.
RH or whomever can throw out any predictions on where they see demand going the second half of 2021, it doesn’t mean they’ll be right. They were dead wrong on a lot of things since this pandemic started, through no fault of their own. No one has a crystal ball. Obviously things are a little clearer as we learn more about this virus, and now that the vaccine is being distributed.
Until the company officially adjusts its cash burn to a more manageable number will I believe the threat of furloughs to be empty. Until then, I’ll wait for the full language agreement and vote accordingly.

 

No one ever has a crystal ball. There is always a chance of furlough even in non pandemic years.. If they were going to furlough it would have happened already when they could have justified it. We all have fears of being put to the street. My fear is that we we don’t capitalize on the moment/opportunities. This is one of those moments. I for one think this is the chance to get some gains. Cola of 3% would set a nice precedent going into contract negotiations in 2022. I would like to see a return to a profit sharing formula that yields better results for us but I have all but ruled out profit sharing in my yearly calculations. I agree I will take a look at the LOA and vote accordingly, too much scope give away and I’m a no. Of course I don’t want to see anybody on the street but I would say we are at a super low risk of that when everyone else is spooling up their training and yes even their hiring (frontier). If there is one thing I have seen it’s JB being aggressive during this pandemic towards growth they won’t stop now on the back side.

 

For accuracy sake, current demand at Frontier for March is causing them to plan block hours at 85% of March 2020. They are also doing more than just accepting resumes. New flight attendants are already being scheduled to a new hire FA class in March, a system bid went out yesterday for 30 captain upgrades in March, pilot interviews beginning soon for new hire classes in July.

Granted that is all subject to change if the world falls apart again, but as it stands now, domestic demand will be coming back sooner than everything else. If JetBlue was highly reliant on business and international (to the extent of the legacies) it could be a problem, but you’re also a pretty decent domestic player as well. I don’t have any dog in the fight and you all need to vote as you see fit on the AA deal, but I think it’s too early to write off the success of JetBlue in the current climate. You all have a great product and some big fans as a solid base.

 

don’t under estimate “copy’s” crystal ball. You heard it hear. He said there is ALMOST 0 chance of it. He’s been right... almost 0 % of the time.

 

They might be wrong...but the AIP as written essentially only provides furlough protection through October if the revenue is still in the toilet. Doubt they’d furlough before/in the summer. That doesn’t make sense. Not with the travel we had pre-vaccine over Christmas, during a big spike in cases. So realistically if they are going to furlough, they’ll do it in the fall if the vax rollout doesn’t help stimulate demand. Also will depend on lockdowns and such, but at least domestically those seem to be reversing (see Cuomo for an example).

Could they furlough? Sure. They could also do it on a similar timeline even with the TA getting voted in if things are that bad. But the chances of it happening are very slim in the near term, as they really just don’t know when the recovery will happen and the vaxes rolling out. The cost of furlough and lag time in displacement bids, training, new bids going the other way, retraining, etc, just makes it a tough justification for a short term exercise, and all signs point to things being a lot better this summer than last summer, and even more so for holiday 2021 and summer 2022. Especially with possible continued govt support in the meantime.

Remember, the company is also required to meet with ALPA and discuss and mitigate furloughs if/when they determine it necessary. There are still a lot of 23.A items left to use. Sending this TA back won’t immediate cause furloughs. There is still opportunity to mitigate beyond solely this AIP and the TA vote. It isn’t a one shot, one opportunity to mitigate type of thing. And again, furloughs are not currently on the table as a discussion point. They could be. But there is no actual plan to furlough right now. If and when there is, there will be another opportunity to mitigate. The company really doesn’t want to furlough. I’m sure they’d love to out of spite for the pilots, but the cost, and uncertainty of the recovery, just makes it a very tough thing to justify.

 

Except the government just murdered the remaining glimmer of hope for international travel by requiring a covid test to return from abroad. Most people will not do that and will just stay domestic or stay home. Watch the numbers drop off even more.

 

I think the vax rollout, resultant drop in case count, and resultant drop in deaths, will change that. I’d imagine a lot more people will be traveling, and able to travel, once vaxxed, and the current “covid test required” rules will change to allow, at a minimum, the vaxxed to travel. Regardless of your feelings on the vax/show me your papers, the fact is a lot of people here and abroad will get it, which won’t entirely kill international from its current levels once it becomes “negative test OR vax required.” I’d expect international hampered by covid test requirements to be largely mitigated with a lot of people vaxxed, in the short to medium term. I don’t think we will be at 2019 levels for a while, but we also won’t be at 2020 levels indefinitely either.

 

oh copy. your so cute. thinking its coming back *pats head*

 

You’re. And yes, it’s coming back. That isn’t even really being debated. It’s just a matter of whether it’s 1/3/5/10 years from now, and whether the cost and complexity for the company to furlough and displace pilots is worth it. As of now, and until they have better future travel data for a post-vaccine world, it isn’t.