avi8orco

It is not going to prevent the carnage seen in LGB.

They are running the system bid with the displacement, therefore according to the contract, the vacancy is run first. So starting at the most senior person bidding for a vacancy, system wide, they will get what they want and can hold, including those open MCO spots if that’s what they bid. In theory, those MCO openings could hypothetically be gone by the time the bid reaches a displaced MCO 190 pilot if they are bid by senior pilots. That will not happen, however, even if it was straight 65 CA and 65 FO openings on the 320 in MCO and there are 65 CA and 65 FOs displaced off the 190 MCO, all of those 190 pilots will not get those spots, I guarantee there will be senior pilots denying them for those openings. Once the vacancy is finished, then, the displacement will be run.

Any MCO 190 pilot that did not get what they want in the system bid that is, run first, will be displaced to their award on their involuntary displacement preference. Being that this is run as a displacement, they will be awarded whatever they can hold, regardless if there’s a vacancy for it. They will therefore displace someone, that person will then displace someone, and so on till the most junior person is displaced then it starts over again with the next senior displaced 190 pilot who starts another domino effect.

This whole scenario is exactly what happened in LA because there was a displacement of LGB pilots, and at the same time, the same number of LA vacancies. So many of those displaced LGB pilots were not able to hold LA due to senior pilots elsewhere in the system wanting LA and being awarded it as the vacancy happens first. The 190 MCO pilots are not just going to slide over just like the LGB pilots didn’t and it caused a training domino effect system wide.

Expect a similar scenario this time around.

Flyby1206

MCO 190 pilots are all displaced 4/23 which created massive displacements through the system. The displaced pilots all have rights to their displaced seat, and the very next day there is a massive vacancy effective date.

the thinking is this will protect as many pilots as possible with displacement rights.

Airwillystyle

By their fruits you will know them!

IPAsallday

Wow, let’s hope! Looking at last yrs bid for 8/1/22 they wanted 4,672. Not too far off.

Bluedriver

At Spirit If you are an FO and have summer 2023 vacation, and bid Capt with an effective date of 3/23, what happens to your summer vacation?

AYLflyer

It absolutely sucks. Every guy I've talked to at other airlines about our once a year bid process looks at me sideways and doesn't understand how we can allow that. At my old place it was monthly. When I started here it was quarterly, which I could live with. Once a year though? Even if I'm not planning on movement, there are people who have things change after bids close in August, and it's ridiculous that you're now stuck with your choices for a full year. People can say that supplemental bids will come out, but there is zero guarantee of that.

Airwillystyle

That’s correct…

Airwillystyle

For those with slightly different numbers feel free to make corrections.

BeatNavy

I’ll also add that I’m not sure how attrition plays into those numbers. My guess is you gotta take the total EOY list size (target pilots + offline pilots) and subtract the attrition to get the real EOY list size. Once these vacancies are bid, they can’t just give out that vacancy to someone else. The surplus vacancies are what is used for newhires. But say (these are arbitrary numbers ahead for the sake of discussion) there are 750 target JFK 320 CAs, there are 700 now, 50 people get that award in this bid, then one quits, the actual number of JFK320CAs by end of next year is 749. They can’t just give that seat to someone else. Same I think is true on the FO side. If 400 people quit between now and EOY 2023, they can’t just arbitrarily hand out those newly created vacancies to newhires. The vacancies for newhires has to come from unbid positions. I think this is why we see a ton of total vacancies (what was it, like 1,000?), but only 189 new CA positions. They might fill all of them, but if 300-400 quit, the vacancies/positions they occupied don’t get recycled to other newhires upon someone’s resignation.

I believe PVBM knows age 65 retirements and takes that into account (but not other attrition), as evidenced by the 189 vs 235 number for CA positions depending on whether you take EOY22 numbers vs EOY23 numbers (+189 CA), or do what flyby did and take the active pilots at the beginning of the 2023 bid and subtract that from the EOY23 numbers (235). The only explanation I can come up with for that difference is there are about that many planned retirements in 2023.

mavsfflife

You lose it and have to rebid as a captain when you upgrade for whatever weeks remaining are available.