Originally Posted by point80

When I said 250 i was guess as a realistic number for initial cuts. Nothing was said on the call saying 250. Just my personal guess based on quick math with displacements needing a minimum of a 5-7 week footprint for cross training. Considering it would cost the company roughly $50k per person to displace equipment I would assume they will avoid this at least initially. Not saying they cant make cuts in waves. But I believe the company will try to avoid this.

Originally Posted by pangolin

400 is more realistic. I figured the displacements on the ca side but the post didn’t send. I’ll send it tomorrow. Phx and IAD over staffed. Captains from those bases would displace to other bases.

Originally Posted by pangolin

For my little exercise this is the CA side displacements:

Base - Need - Left - Net
PHX CA 60 89 +29
DFW CA 87 83 - 4
IAD CA 36 48 +12
IAH CA 182 167 -15
SDF CA 10 4 -6

PHX has surplus as well as IAD CA from those bases will go to other bases. The company can use some of their IAD transition money to move some of those pilots to IAH

Because of using seniority list with the roster this isn’t perfect but it’s close showing what might happen. The FO displacement is harder to figure out because downgrades didn’t happen in IAD but IAD needs fo’s. Jr ca downgraded may find themselves as fo in IAD.

Originally Posted by pangolin

I used to think the 490 was greatly inflated. So I put on my analyst hat - which is what I am in my other life and figured this out.

Taking CA at each base we flew lines that were reduced to about 80% of normal this month. Pre Covid the company ran with 10% reserve coverage happily.

So I took the lines by captain and added the 10 % reserves then multiplied it by 80 percent to get the requirement. This is for September which is the best month we have had since covid.

I got the following numbers for overstaffing by base:

It's base, Requirement and current staff then overstaffing.

PHX CA 60 105 -45
PHX FO 60 96 -36

DFW CA 87 138 -51
DFW FO 87 136 -49

SDF CA 10 17 -7
SDF FO 10 15 -5

IAD CA 36 52 -16
IAD FO 36 66 -30

IAH CA 182 271 -89
IAH FO 182 278 -96

Total -

CA 208
FO 216

424 Overstaffed

Now Oct is WAY DOWN over Sept. I don't think the 490 is out of line. Even if they don't want to cut to the bone I think we can count on 400. You could use this to find the numbers lost in each base and then determine the displacements as well. I don't have time right now to do it but I do not think that the company is bluffing. The numbers are just the numbers and they don't lie.

See updated FAQ from the union.

Originally Posted by propellere

Pangolin Leader of the babysharks, you spend a lot of time crunching numbers. Maybe if you spent that much time on your resume, you wouldn’t be at Mesa anymore. 🧐

Just wait 4 more days, and everyone will know how many people are getting furloughed. I am going to guess 200-250 as stated several months ago. The company will probably downgrade slightly more only to save a little extra cash. I have a feeling the displacement bid will push more people on the RJ to DFW as the PHX base will start shrinking.

Recommend my fellow junior people to apply at:

https://careers.fedex.com/fedex/

Also, just incase anyone was wondering, do not download iOS14 for your iPad and wear your mask.

Originally Posted by OnFingers12345

Is it 490? Or only 400? Just asking since you seem to know the exact number.

Originally Posted by Aeronaut55

So do you think all the phx people are ok going to dfw..and then sdf..and then iad? Dfw guys ok going to iad etc etc?They aren’t...so they don’t want to have people below them furloughed. You can’t even vote..give it up.

There’s no conspiracy. The company isn’t hiding money..and flying is down over 50%. The numbers make sense to anyone with half a brain.