If we can fill classes (which we should be able to do without any issue), and you are at the beginning of this hiring wave, it will look pretty good. We are losing quite a few to outside attrition, plus flowing pilots to AA. Combine that with adding at least 35 more airplanes in the next year and a half or so, and everyone that is currently on property should upgrade in 18 months. If you miss the beginning of the wave, there really is no telling exactly. It would be a guess.

All of the majors and LCC's are hiring, so attrition should pick up even more than it is now. As we are adding captains, the flow number will also increase. There are more 900's that may be delivered in 2017, but they have not been announced yet.

 

Thanks. That's my dilemma- hoping to not miss an opportunity at various regionals, but trying my luck at LCCs 1st.

 

You really think all 500 or our FOs will upgrade within 18 months? That would require upgrade classes of 25-30 a month for the next 18 months. You should be a pilot recruiter if youre not already, youre a natural with these pipe dreams.

 

I think that we will likely lose at least 100 of our current FO's to other carriers (LCC's, even legacy carriers). That leaves 400. Of those, at least 50 will bypass upgrade, are on leave, or on the list as a ground instructor. That would leave 350, which would be upgrade classes every 2 weeks of 10. We are currently upgrading 8 every 2 weeks, so increasing it to 10 seems pretty doable. If we are hiring 25 every 2 weeks, and lets say 20 of them make it to the line, it would be pretty easy to upgrade 10 every 2 weeks.

There is nothing "pipe dream" about this.

Is there something wrong with that math?

 

No, the math is good. Assuming those numbers are what happens is where you're losing me. We just started upgrading 8 every two weeks for what a month or two? I wouldnt feed these potential new guys rainbows and butterflies when thats easily subject to change. Your numbers imo are best case scenario/not happening. But we all have opinions. I just want to reiterate to new guys to take whats read here with a grain a salt.

 

It is not all rainbows and unicorns, but that is as solid a projection as you are going to get.

We are already losing 5+ FOs a month to outside attrition (which is 100 in 18 months) right now. That number will likely increase. We could lose 10-15 in any given month.I was using a conservative number.

We will likely have closer to 100 FOs bypass upgrade. Some are on extended medical or military leave. Even more are ground instructors. Then we have the "lifer" FO's. I used the number of 50, which is really worst case scenario, so I was painting an accurate picture, not a pipe dream.

We will be hiring at least 40 a month, probably more. We will easily be able to upgrade 20 a month. Our last several upgrade classes averaged right at 7-8 per class. I think they will probably increase to 12 or 15 every two weeks, much like it was a year ago. I estimated upgrade classes of 10 just to be conservative.

If I wanted to be overly optimistic, I would have said that every FO on property will upgrade in 12 months. But I said 18 months, which is very realistic given the current circumstances.

 

I think most understand that upgrade and flow times are always predictions and not contractual timelines. As a hope to be new hire I always take these predictions with a grain of salt. However everything in aviation can change like the stock market. It's a bull market right now though...

 

I still have no idea what any of that means. I got in at the right time.

 

New crew base - DCA, confirmed-ish by Dion today. Official announcement in a couple weeks.

PSA is also confirmed to be accepting the additional 700's from Envoy, and Envoy will likely take additional Embraer airplanes. The announcement about the 700's that Envoy's MEC made are completely unfounded, according to Envoy and PSA management. The initial work on the transfers has already started, and PSA has leased additional hangar space support the 700's. Envoy is working now on ending their maintenance and training programs on the 700, and transferring people to another fleet and all parts/support to PSA.

Envoy will grow, as will PSA, as long as classes stay full.

 

They are doing dca for the awac pilots


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk