ncflyer704

Interesting post. Yet, only 55 pilots flowed from PSA to American in 2016 (pilot group is 1200 ish); a year that Americian hired 600ish. Pay increases and bonuses may get a few more in the door for now, but net Captain gains to trigger additional flow numbers did not materialize for 2016. PSA career expectations underperformed in 2016. LOA 5 salesmen (ALPA) spoke of and projected 7-8 flows per month by the end of 2016. The company had to meet again in May to discuss the flow. That resulted in no increase. The "answers" for 2017 are from the same group(s). So while the American projected retirement information is of interest, it does not make a flat flow agreement look any different.

penaltybox

Negations have been ongoing since June. I wouldn't be surprised if it's tied to the critical coverage arbitration hence to long delay.

ncflyer704

Agreed, and to your point, PSA still flows only 5 per month. PSA can not increase net Captain gains (62) over the course of a year just to trigger 1 additional flow. Critcal coverage arbitration is not associated with LOA 5 Career Enhancment II. What does this tell potential new hires? Since May (and for all of 2016) PSA has had a flat flow agreement tied up as you speculate with a completely seperate issue.

Keysdude61

Unfortually they lied about the vacation. But you did drink that kool aid so I expect you to believe it. It's pretty clearly written in the contract it's based on years of service.

PSA help

Vacations are based on years of service. You are absolutely correct. But, you are allowed to bid a vacation in the calendar year that you earn it. So, if you "earn" a vacation in November of a year, you can take it anytime previous to it in the same year.

We all bid for vacations at the same time (within a few weeks of eachother). If it were truly based just on years of service, you would bid only on your anniversary date.

The contract, and company, allow you to bid for a vacation in a year that you will earn it. So, if you earn 2 weeks of vacation anytime in 2017, then you are allowed to bid for 2 weeks of vacation in 2017. You can take them in January and February, even though your anniversary date is in November.

The only catch is, if you leave before your anniversary date, you have to pay back the time that you took that you didn't earn.

PSA help

I agree that the AA retirement numbers really isn't tied to our flow in any way. The reason that they are of interest is to see what is happening at the legacy carriers. There are literally thousands of retirements in the next few years alone.

If you have a fairly clean record, a college degree, and put forth some effort, you will be able to get a job at a legacy carrier.

United and AA really haven't started hiring a lot yet. So far, this year, here is the hiring by airline:

American: 433
Delta: 1048
United: 473
Southwest: 579
FedEx: 296
UPS: 63

So far, that is a total of about 2,900 for 2016. In 2 years from now, it will be 5,000 a year. Not all will come from the regionals. Some will be from military. Others will be current 91/135 pilots. But the fact remains that in 5 years, the regionals will be decimated.

ncflyer704

Curious, does your Americian numbers include Nov 1st, 15th and 29th classes (over 100 I understand). Your stated "fact" that the regionals will be decimated in 5 years does what for PSA career progression? Does your point of view mean that PSA promotes non existence in 5 years to new hires, or the pilot group must be absorbed into a legacy seniority because of decimation? I'm not sure how to view your statement. Maybe there is no associated view to new hires and I missed your point ?

PSA help

You should use your own critical thinking skills. What is going to happen to the regionals when the majors and LCC's hire 20,000 in the next 5-6 years? How many new pilots will graduate flight schools and acquire the number of hours required in the next 5-6 years? What will be net deficit be at the regional level?

No one knows for sure.

That is more pilots than currently are employed by all of the regionals combined. Not all hires at the majors will come from the regionals, but many will, if not most.

ncflyer704

I think you answered my question with a question, but that's ok as your data was of interest. My conclusion is that PSA currently has flat career progression and that is informed by evidence. What will happen in the future (3-5 years) doesn't need my critical thinking, it appears to need HR's and the Operational Managers!

chrisreedrules

They know very well what's coming. And they most likely have a pretty good idea of the overall plan for the WOs. Only time will tell what is going to happen.