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Old 09-22-2016, 02:34 PM
  #9451  
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Originally Posted by GoNova View Post
So if you are a new hire soon you'll be around #475, and say the airline grows like it plans too to 600, very possible with almost $60,000 for people hopping regionals and $54,000 for new hires on top of 1000 hour upgrades and flow, so definitely possible to grow to that number. Once the hiring is straight in to the jet (for the must fly a sjs guys) very soon and announce a new base to attract a different region that growth could be even larger. Piedmont has already announced if they can get the pilots the jets will keep coming.

Now you're looking at 5 per month / 60 a year, so if # 90 is around where you flow and you are 125 from the bottom there are 385 flowing in front of you, let's say 50 just 50 which is only 13% (small percentage) moves on to a major/mid level/corporate/terminated/whatever that puts 335 above you and a little over 5 and a half years.

So in conclusion it is realistic if you decide to work for Piedmont you can flow a little over 5 years, now if they grow even more and somehow more than 13% of the pilots flowing above you (extremely possible) decide to move on the number will be 5 or less. You're also looking at a place where you can bid captain as fast as possible and become eligible quicker to move on outside the flow. Just saying
Exactly. Over 5 years. It doesn't get under 5 unless you guys grow BEYOND the target. In an industry that's struggling to maintain capacity, I believe it's fair to say that's very unlikely.

Do you have statistics on your current attrition from the top half of the list? Junior FO's jumping ship don't really have an effect here.
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Old 09-22-2016, 02:48 PM
  #9452  
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Originally Posted by boiler07 View Post
Exactly. Over 5 years. It doesn't get under 5 unless you guys grow BEYOND the target. In an industry that's struggling to maintain capacity, I believe it's fair to say that's very unlikely.

Do you have statistics on your current attrition from the top half of the list? Junior FO's jumping ship don't really have an effect here.
Now now boiler boy use your ****ing head. Purdue called...they want their diploma back dumbass.
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Old 09-22-2016, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Lvlng4Spd View Post
Now now boiler boy use your ****ing head. Purdue called...they want their diploma back dumbass.
I'm thinking this is just the beginning. I see this is a race between the big three for pilots. When the ulcc and lcc are having half full classes, things are going to get nuts soon. Get yourself in a decent qol position and let it play out.

Pdt had been an excellent choice for me.
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Old 09-22-2016, 04:34 PM
  #9454  
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Originally Posted by boiler07 View Post
Exactly. Over 5 years. It doesn't get under 5 unless you guys grow BEYOND the target. In an industry that's struggling to maintain capacity, I believe it's fair to say that's very unlikely.

Do you have statistics on your current attrition from the top half of the list? Junior FO's jumping ship don't really have an effect here.
Are you really going to get on the Piedmont recruiting department for projecting a 5-year flow to AA? Pretty much everyone here is familiar with how to be realistic with recruiting promises. I simply provided some numbers to emphasize a realistic worst-case model that countered a flat out lie by one of your co-workers.

You do also realize that your recruiting dept. is projecting that same, unrealistic 5-year flow? Time to take your talents back to the Envoy thread. You can take your bowl of sour grapes with you.
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Old 09-22-2016, 04:42 PM
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What's the current DOH for a flow? What is it estimated in a year, two years etc. with their current flow rate? I thought I heard Piedmont was currently flowing DOH 2000 guys. Seems like a huge stretch to go down to 5 years.

Isn't the retention bonus just $10,000 a year? Up to $20,000? It doesn't come close to Endeavors pay.

It's good there is movement in the industry again. I remember back when I was hired in 2005 we saw similar movement to what is happening now (minus the pay and bonus increases). Mostly however because the RJ was taking over and mainline was shrinking. Although there was some limited hiring at United and Delta then. Lots of folks were trying to go to SWA.
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Old 09-22-2016, 04:49 PM
  #9456  
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Looks like the flow is at 2004 hires right now. To be fair, there's a stretch of 10 pilots on the seniority list that spans 3 years of seniority. So the length in terms of time on property is dropping rather quickly.

The bonuses are as follows: $15,000 for new hires. An additional $5,000 for prior 121. FO retention is paid out over 2 years at a total of $20,000.
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Old 09-22-2016, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TheWrightStuff View Post
Looks like the flow is at 2004 hires right now. To be fair, there's a stretch of 10 pilots on the seniority list that spans 3 years of seniority. So the length in terms of time on property is dropping rather quickly.

The bonuses are as follows: $15,000 for new hires. An additional $5,000 for prior 121. FO retention is paid out over 2 years at a total of $20,000.
We will be in to the 2007 hires shortly. There are a lot from 2007 and 2008 to get through.. Than poof were in 2013/14/15 hires..

Right now when I joined it looks like it will be a min of 4 years and max of 6 years before I would be able to flow. 6 if we stay at 3 per month and 4 if we grow to 600 pilots.

We are losing a few, one or two captains a month to other companies, such as majors and cargo. The fos that we are losing are junior guys where either 121 isn't for them or pdt isn't the match.

That being said before this raise I crushed triple premium and was able to make close to 50k in my first year here. I only got 5k sign on bonus. With triple premium and new salary I expect myself to make over 60k as an fo. I didn't think I would become a ***** but I figured out ways to get a lot of triple premium time without giving a lot of time of. Plus my vacation months I earned over 200 credit hours both month. if I upgrade I expect to make slightly more. I'm on the fence right now to take the upgrade. I suspect there will be an upgrade bonus also on the way soon since we need motivation to upgrade with this new pay structure.
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Old 09-22-2016, 06:33 PM
  #9458  
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Originally Posted by Lvlng4Spd View Post
Now now boiler boy use your ****ing head. Purdue called...they want their diploma back dumbass.
I guess that's a no.
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Old 09-22-2016, 06:39 PM
  #9459  
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Originally Posted by GoNova View Post
There is no target, as much as piedmont hires they grow, endeavor had no trouble growing 500+ pilots with unappealing NYC bases when they had industry leading pay, longer upgrade times at the time, and no garunteed job. Piedmont now has industry leading pay, an upgrade time out of training prior 121 or as fast as you can reach 1000 121, and a garunteed job.

I think they can easily grow way past 600, that was just a conservative number which yes the math I did splitting hairs was techincally more than 5 but less than 6. I don't have the numbers of the upper half attrition but with the increase in hiring at the major I think you will probably see more than 13% attrition above you outside of flow.
Ah, yes.

"There is unlimited growth potential in the current landscape. Plus, another airline grew a lot a few years ago when the pool wasn't so dried up, so we should totally be able to do it."



The only way any regional will be able to sustain growth will be to continually raise pay. Eventually mother AAG will say no more increases. There goes everyone's growth.
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Old 09-22-2016, 06:47 PM
  #9460  
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It won't be surprising if a couple regionals close their doors, causing pilots to flock to the WOs, even if they don't offer industry leading pay.

The more the WOs grow the AA is less reliant on contract feed. As UAL and DAL bring regional flying in house, the effect will be the same.

Eventually the music is going to stop at the regional level and not every company will have a chair. That's where WO/SSP program regionals will their staffing. It suck for those who have to start over laterally but hopefully the majors will call them by then.
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