This happened to Pinnacle right before bankruptcy. Our CEO came out swinging saying we need a contract ASAP. Then after we passed the contract he came back and said that if we didn't take concessions (all because the contract we signed was too expensive) we would declare bankruptcy. Guess what happened? Pinnacle declared bankruptcy in the end. Nothing could have saved that mess of an airline without the help of tens of millions of bailout $$ Delta handed out. We got a terrible bankruptcy contract shoved down our throats and life turned out to be miserable at that place.
Funny thing is that Pinnacle hired the exact same "consulting" group you guys just hired right before we declared bankruptcy.
My point is that I think Republic is too far sunk to be saved at this point without bankruptcy reorganization. BB has ruined you. He will declare bankruptcy regardless of what you guys vote or don't vote. It's his only saving grace.

 

And ours is to stand our ground us saying yes to contract is like us pulling a Leeeeeroy Jenkins.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9l23a3setM

 

This is should be our theme music! Every Hero needs one!

 

It’s entirely possible this is going to be a repeat of the whole Pinnacle situation but there are some significant differences in the industry today. When the Pinnacle situation occurred there were much fewer options for the pilots as there was far less hiring going on at the time, in addition, there were other providers who could have stepped in and absorbed the Pinnacle flying. Neither of those are true today.

From what I gather Republic is not only having trouble attracting new pilots, they’re struggling to keep the ones they have, hence the bonuses. If Republic just decided to throw the company into BK, that would mean the end of any chance of attracting new pilots. It would also make the trickle of pilots leaving now turn into a mad rush. Isn’t the whole reason Republic is offering this contract because they cannot staff the flying they have and as such are causing a major headache for DL/AA/UA? BK would exasperate this situation tremendously.

And that brings me to my other point, they can’t staff the flying the have right now, but who else could? Is there anyone out there now that could pick up Republic’s flying if they shut the doors tomorrow, or heck a year from now?

I agree that there’s something else going on here, my eyebrows definitely went up when I saw the new pay rates. But is it at least plausible that AA/DL/UA, seeing the hassle caused by the current staffing problems and knowing it would just be the tip of the iceberg if Republic went under, opened up their checkbook(s) and made some sort of adjustment to the current contracts which would then provide Republic the money to carry this new contract? Of course they could never say so, that would mean this is not the “last best offer”.

Long term it seems to me the majors are going to have to pony up more dough to their regional providers because they in turn are having to pay more to attract/retain enough pilots. It’s possible this is the first instance of such an adjustment taking place.

Maybe this will all turn out the way Pinnacle did. But while Pinnacle survived, and has decent long term prospects. I’m not sure I see viable long-term survival scenario for Republic via bankruptcy, and I think they know it. I think AA/DL/UA know it too.

 

I bet those FO rates cost less than the current ones plus training costs associated with FO attrition to other regionals.

For someone who's not there anymore, looking at those 10+ year rates left me pretty underwhelmed since this would replace a 2003 contract.

 

when does the voting start/end?

 

It hasn't been decided if there will even be a vote yet.

Stay tuned.

 

Rah made 73 million in 2014. A $5 raise for everyone on property is 1 million a month. They can afford this lbfo and much more. My guess is the economics of the lbfo are 20-30 million first year.

 

Well... I think someone else can do the flying if Republic slowly goes the way of the Buffalo. It wouldn't be a "shut the doors overnight" scenario, it would take a couple years. Mesa, Compass, and Envoy all have 175 programs and Envoy especially is poised to take on more flying quicker than the others. And I've been looking at the PSA lines for next month and we are continuing to pick up more of your flying as well as mainline picking up some of it. I wish you all the best, but many of us on the outside looking in fear the ship may have already taken on too much water. Great FO pay rates don't mean a whole lot when there are airlines offering less than a 2 year upgrade. Year 2 CA pay is going to be better than year 10 FO pay no matter how you cut it.