I'm guessing that's better than the Comair Job Offer?

 

The numbers are pretty simple, just based on the regulated retirement age there will be 1207 pilots gone by the end of 2018. That's an average of 240/year but in reality it ramps up pretty steeply (121, 168, 223, 284, 411). Then, in the next five years 3561 pilots age out (2019-2023). That's 41.4% of the pilots on the property on Jan 1, 2014. Gone by the end of 2023.

Factor in current mainline growth plans (B717s and B737-9s) and a steady stream of new hires will be necessary to keep things on track.

 

Are the 717s and 737s all growth? I thought the 717s were replacing the DC-9s? Also, are the 73s replacing MD-80s? How long are the MD-80s going to hang around?

 

The 737-900 are replacing some 757s. The MD88s will be here forever.

 

Yeah it seems like we're really focused on saving pennies for a few more seconds than we are actually getting ahead of the issue. Heard we cx'd dozens of flights over Xmas from a lack of pilots. We're below the supposedly magical 10B debt number where the financinals are supposed to morph into perpetual awesomeness yet the hiring is slowly beginning to barely trickle in with no real signs of accelerating other than rumors and unconfirmed inuendo. Everyone thinks Wall Street is all coiled up ready to freak out and tank the stock if word gets out that a company starts hiring to replace a looming, highly predictable and unavoidable mass exodus. Then we paint ourselves into a corner calling furlough bypass pilots "new hires" with all the press release fanfare when they could have easilly slipped under the radar completely giving us a 150 or so pilot buffer before we "hired" a single pilot.

Are we hiring any mechanics? FA's? Rampers? Managers? Where is the institutional investor freak out from that? Its absolutely ridiculous to think anyone involved in the stock will wig out because of a few hundred additional pilots when they are needed to properly run the operation. To any extent anyone in the investment world anywhere cares about capacity, they only care about the actual size of the airline network. Relative to that, 300 or 600 isn't going to make a blip on our stock price. If the mainline is indeed growing, it can be painted as a positive. 2 pilots on a 150 seater doing the work of 6 pilots on three 50 seaters is what facilitates lower CASM and operating expenses all around anyway.

 

I don't think wall street cares a bit if Delta hires pilots. What they are afraid of is the capacity wars that seem to start every time airlines get a nickel or two in their pocket. When they smell that coming airline stocks will tank. If it actually happens and history says it will then profits will tank also. The first growth airframe did not arrive at Delta until last oct. We are 3 months into the cycle and the hiring is happening. As the retirements increase and more airframes then originally planned start arriving the numbers will increase.

 

Maybe, and we'll see I guess. There is still an awful lot of wiggle room to continue to shrink to profitability with the aging 320's, nebulous 757 retirement schedule and portion of the 88 fleet that is several years away from getting glass/modernized. Even if the mainline grows with the 717's, the network could still shrink. And capacity wars are outside the walls of our keep preparing to mount the mother of all assaults the likes of which the industry has never before seen. The fantasy of endless YoY margin growth is about to come to a screeching halt in a few short years or less. Only the airlines that can consistently win marketshare will survive and thrive. Capacity dicipline is a time limited tactic that will very soon begin to cause more long term harm than the transient short term YoY number buffs.

The next 5 years will be far more influential than the last 5, which will be viewed as incredibly easy by comparison. The rest of this decade is where RA and team will truly even begin to earn their money and their legacy. Canibalizing your own capacity to choke supply to increase relative demand was the easy part. Actually winning in a market that is barfing capacity all over the place will seperate the leaders from the managers. To steal a line from Patton, the goal isn't to reduce your capacity for the good of the industry, its to get the other poor SOB to reduce his.

 

Gloopy,

The whole "Shrink to Profitability" model has changed. In the good ole days, if an airline shrunk their "network" shrunk. This is no longer valid. DAL mainline can shrink while the network grows. So airlines may indeed be able to shrink and increase profits now.

Think of all the "bad stuff" from a Pilot perspective - JVs, Codeshares, DCI etc, etc. FWIW - I don't think this is what is happening now at DAL. I think Mainline has bottomed out and will slowly grow - providing of course no "black swan" sightings.

Scoop

 

I agree that is the plan on the dry erase board of the day. But I don't see an actual battle plan to address the upcoming catastrophic seat dumping we are about to see from the Gulf airlines and their lobbyists as well as the flag of convenience scum bag labor buster airlines that are every bit deserving of a label even worse than the existing "S - word". At least one of those will have the courtessy to wait for an incredibly rare strike to stick a knife in our backs. These dirt bags will do it all day, every day, any day, its already started and it going to get way, way worse.

I'm looking hard for an agressive battle plan by the company to combat these threats. Its great when we can be on the same page to write Congress or whatever, but its their (extremely highly paid) jobs to figure out how to agressively beat the competition. We can't focus on the numerically impossible mission of never ending YoY numbers growth because that trend is simply not possible for much longer. You just can't compound anything that much on a permanant basis. We are in a battle for the very survival of our careers and the industry of a nation. Trimming capacity to drive up margins is played out. The capacity leaches are coming, and they are counting on us to yield in a failing attempt to preserve margins for a little bit longer.

 

Called for an update today. OTS December interviews can expect late 2014 for class.