Can't see that ever happening. At least it never has to me. Even if you get back on day 4 of 5, you are coded RBID, a place holder for "cannot assign more flying". Have never been junior manned here, personally.

 

Where to you guys see the upgrade time going for BOS-320 for the foreseeable future? Things have gone to a screeching halt in both seats post-CBA, so it’s hard to predict. I’ve been a 190 FO for 3 years and trying to plan a move to the Airbus at some point. 190 CA reserve with zero growth on that fleet doesn’t really interest me.

 

Right now that would trigger EPS, but once all of Section 25 is active, that changes, and this scenario could likely become more common.

 

Yes sir. I'm sure it has happened to some, but never to me. I have had EPS during a trip assigned while RSV, but never on the last day. YMMV

 

Why haven’t you gone to the bus? You’d be around 65%, have a decent schedule, and be at $151 vs $118. I’d take a month in JBU and being 2/3 down the list on the bus vs 1/3 down the list on the 190, personally. If I were in your shoes I’d go to the bus now and upgrade when you can on the 220 or 320.

As for 320 upgrade time in BOS for someone hired 3 years ago? Assuming you’re around 3100 now? I’d bet 3-5 more years, or when you’re around 3000/5000 on the list. Once a decent amount of 220 CA seats open, presumably in 2023, I think it will be a smaller gap in seniority than the 190 and 320 is and cause the 320 CA to go a little more junior on a percentage basis. Until then, I see a ton of senior 190 guys continuing to go over to the 320 and keeping that upgrade time/overall percentage high.

 

Thank you for your input.

I haven’t moved over to the Airbus mostly because I’m holding day trips/two days with a lot of broken pairings. The airbus would be mostly 3&4 days with redeyes. Lots of VDA opportunities as well as I’ve gotten more senior in this seat (no I didn’t during the labor dispute.)

Going on 4th year pay and later, the two scales start to widen even further as you indicated. I felt like 3rd year pay you can still justify staying on the 190 for QOL purposes.

 

don't forget that "zero growth" and "zero movement" are very different things, especially for the e190 over the next few years. no one knows how it will pan out, but moving up the e190 ca list quickly seems pretty much a given, as i don't exactly see the most senior e190 guys holding on until the last minute.

 

^^^^this

We haven’t taken an E190 delivery in 6 years but the movement on the list is still rapid

 

As a current data point (which I think will change with this bid that’s open): I was a 320 Captain in BOS who bid back to the 190 for family reasons/QOL in 2017. I’m almost 12 years on property and haven’t been able to come anywhere near BOS 320 in any bid that’s happened since the AIP. That’s going to change eventually but I’d be shocked to see 320 CA in BOS below 8-10 years anytime soon.

 

The last year (since NY/BOS bus captain has become so senior) has all been post AIP bids with a significant change in the dynamic...namely work rules (ADG making formerly bad 10-11 hour 3 days go away making junior bus trips more palatable) and the 90% pay differential going away. Obviously there’s been a flood of senior NY/BOS 190 guys switching over (along with super senior 5 sandwich FOs finally upgrading) temporarily making the seniority required to get bus captain higher than historical numbers in those 2 bases. There have also been relatively few 320 CA vacancies in these bases over the last year, making it even worse.

If JB is really hiring 450 this year and 500 next year, that’s gotta equal about 400 bus captain vacancies over 2019/2020 (and we haven’t seen much yet for this year), most of which will be in JFK/BOS/FLL. I think the senior 190 churn will finish in the next year or so and the numbers will go back down to a more normalized level. That said, my estimate was 3-5 more years for a guy hired 3 years ago, so 6-8 total, which isn’t that far off your 8-10 year estimate. All depends on how much hiring ends up happening and how much of it goes to BOS...but since JG said BOS will be as big as JFK, I imagine BOS will get a decent amount of that.

If there are 36 A220s and 73 A321NEOs added between now and end of 2023, that is 850 or so CA vacancies that will have to be filled, most of which will be BOS/FLL since JFK is maxed out with slots. Of course that’s assuming all those deliveries happen. And sure some of the 190 CA slots will go away so it isn’t all “new” CA slots, but with the $10 pay differential between the 320 and 220, again I don’t think such a wide gap will remain, in theory lowering the relative 320 CA seniority due to a more equalized seniority distribution compared to what we see today with the 190 shift. At least that’s my prediction.