They're factoring in attrition outside of the flow. I don't believe the 5 year prediction but we are certainly losing a lot more than 60/year to other airlines

 

They are counting on our flow going to 8 and other airline attrition keeping steady/growing.


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They're not factoring anything. No calculations were preformed. They are simply stating a competitive number. You cant dispute them because your an applicant applying for a job. You also cannot say their wrong until 5 years from now when it doesn't happen, until then your just not accounting for variable change.
The real issue though, is even if they did give you comforting numbers they are subject to change. At least this way you can see how inherently unreliable this type of prediction can possibly be.

 

They are expecting to lose more than 50% of 2014 and 2015 hires in the next year or two.

The majority of 2014 hires have more than 5000TT and now more than 1000TPIC. They are getting picked up by everyone.

AAG did provide real calculations to back up their flow numbers, but there are so many variables that there is no way of telling if they are correct.

If attrition of 2014 and early 2015 hires hits and remains at 20-25 a month, as is expected, the flow numbers will be that fast.

If we lose 300 to attrition from the middle of the list in a year, plus flow 60, then we just lost 1/3 of our list in 1 year.

Do that twice, and a new hire is suddenly top 1/3 of the list in 2 years. Then you will move much slowly, which will take another 2-3 or 4 years.

That is how they are calculating the flow numbers.

But no one knows if that will happen. It is a guess.

 

Top 1/3rd of the list in 2 years !! Wooohooo.

You heard it here first.

 

I never said that it was going to happen, that is just how they are figuring it.

 

Piedmont's (PDT) flow is five years or less, not PSA's. Maybe he's getting the ads confused.

 

Anybody know why there hasnt been a bid for trasfers for the month of February? They were launching them out pretty quick for a while now it's like they just stopped.

 

They are waiting for the new base announcement to happen this week first.

 

I thought the new base was DCA, or did I miss something?