Well, apparently you're "all in" and buying the sales job they've put on you. I can say that in this case then Batman, the Joker has pulled one on you.

 

I have no idea nor have any information available re: how many bids will come or how many Capt vacancies. THAT information is not available to you, I, or him.

What IS available is a seniority list and a calculator. They were obviously not used prior to his post.

I'm not "dissing" Envoy. I've spent 16+ yrs here trying to make it the best it could be. What I AM dissing is the people who intentionally misrepresent facts to further their own self serving agenda. So long as <reasonable> assumptions are put forth, you'll hear little out of me...

Since you're not "new" to the airlines you likely could see through the smoke. Others who ARE new to the industry don't have that experience and could be sucked in by half truths. I just don't think that's fair to them.

Comparing Envoy to Mesa and saying how good we've got it? We already have a certain manager hired from there who seems hell bent to take us in that direction. No, thanks. Too many people have worked too hard here through the years to make EGL/ ENY the BEST it can be. Evidently you agree, so why don't you pick up the baton?

 

Apparently my comment is being construed as a basis for our flow's projected performance in a linear manner.

Like any stock, past performance should not be used to predict future gains.

Our flow is currently at 16 years, 4 months. That is undeniable.


It will change. It will drop. That too, is undeniable.

The only debate is whether it will make it to the advertised 2.5/5.

 

I completely agree.

I hope that the Envoy Pilots current and future have it better than I and my "generation."

Barring a catastrophe they almost certainly will.

2.5/6?

I wouldn't start cashing THOSE checks quite yet.

 

16 years 2 months minus the 10 years of no hiring at any legacy.
Tell facts, but include all the facts.

Do you think hiring will stop?
Do you think the 3950 guys with mandatory retirement before 2021 won't retire?
What's 1/2 of 3950?
How many of the 1800ish pilots at Envoy will flow?

With the legacy hiring picking up its little more than insurance, but is still better than what others have.
When they're on the jumpseat We hear nothing except how they wish they had it as the backup too

 

It very well could for any number of reasons. For a decade ? Definitely not likely, but for months or even a couple of years ? Distinctly possible.

Your figures don't match mine. From now until end of 2020 (4 years, 9 months), I came up with about 2850 age 65 retirements from the combined list. My US Airways numbers may be in question though. Could you verify your figures and source ?

I'm sure most DO wish they had that deal, but I think many believe jumping ship to the back of that line isn't a good risk. If they did you'd see more defections from other regionals. Probably similar why most Envoy F/O's won't jump ship laterally to chase a faster upgrade.

 

3950 was 2015-2021; that is six years from when the company first projected a 6 year flow to AA. Half of the 3950 retirements is well above our entire pilot list of guys who will elect to flow. We've already sent over 500 of the 824. People complain about Envoy shrinking from 3000 to now under 2000 without ever considering that over 850 went via flow to AA. Like it or not, the new AAG is much better than AMR was at making the flow work.

Is it perfect, nope; but it's a better program than anybody else has.

 

I agree that the retirement numbers look great, but how small will we be when another 500 flow? How small can we get?

 

hiring is their problem to fix

 

Agreed that hiring is their problem to fix and a nice analogy that paints a rosy picture of the last 5 years. As we both know, it hasn't been all that rosy for the pilots that remain at Envoy.

Although hiring is their problem to fix, you do understand that you eventually need replacements for the guys flowing right? Over the past year and a half it has been a non issue as Envoy as shrunk.

At this point, Envoy has stopped shrinking, at least temporarily. It may become permanent though as the other AAG wholly owneds are experiencing the same problem as Envoy. They can't find enough new hires. Tack on RAH's crummy on time record and inability to complete their flying, it does appear that AAG wants to shift some of that 175 flying to Envoy. If this does indeed end up being the case, then it's as I've been saying these past few weeks. By the end of this year, Envoy will find itself in a critical position in regards to staffing.

I'm going to go ahead right now and guarantee you that Parker/AAG are absolutely not going to let any Envoy aircraft sit idle as pilots exit Envoy to AA. They will either flat out claim operational necessity and violate the flow agreement or they will reach some kind of deal with the union that maybe offers a few more bucks but cuts off the flow for an indeterminate period as operational necessity dictates.

Sure, you will cry that it will halt recruiting efforts and no one will come to Envoy. However it appears that's already happened. The few remaining qualified pilots willing to sell their soul to Envoy have all but disappeared. At your seniority, being outside the 824, I would gear up for a longer stint at Envoy than originally planned.