Flyby1206

How could Moxy build a west coast network in a way JB couldn’t? Will Moxy somehow get gates in LAX/SFO? Let’s say they build a hub in SJC, ONT, etc will that really be economically viable if JB were to buy them? Or is the ultimate plan for Moxy to remain independent from JB and just provide codeshare feed? That plan could fail considering the VX plan already failed.

I agree with you that Moxy’s business plan isn’t well laid out for the public yet, but I also think that the plan isn’t very well detailed even in the mind of DN. He’s a scatterbrained visionary and opportunist. I think he knew the A220 would be a game changer airplane and just got some orders lined up, and would figure out the rest later.

Bluedriver

I have detailed this before, but give me a few minutes and I'll lay out my theory here.

pilotpayne

It would be interesting if DN could come back and take Jetblue private. Not saying it would happen but it would be interesting to see what he would do.

Southerner

My point is that you keep talking about "adding to the list" when others are talking about hiring. I understand exactly what you're saying, but that's not the first time you've come back to a hiring comment and started in about "adding to the list," as if their numbers are wrong because they aren't thinking like you do.


As far as that number goes, we would have to do some expansion to be able to hire that many. I think anything over 500 a year will seriously stress the system. And to your point, there would have to be a serious increase in airframes to justify hiring 3100 more, since our attrition is under 100 per year.

BeatNavy

I use the "added to the list" number because it is the more relevant one for people evaluating career progression, for those who are at JB or about to go to JB. Most major airline attrition comes from the top of the list, or at least higher than a new hire. At JB, attrition is mostly 0-3 year guys. So by stating hiring numbers without context, it paints a false (or at least only partial) picture of seniority progression, which is why I state both. If Delta hires 400 people after they hire you, the expectation is that you have 400 people behind you, and either 400 people retired or there was slight growth. If JB hires 400 people, you really may only have 250-300 behind you with only a trickle of retirements (or otherwise senior people) leaving ahead of you. To address only hiring numbers without painting the full picture of seniority progression is not being fully transparent.

Furthermore, when talking about "hiring 3100" there needs to be context with regards to reality and what JB actually has on order. JB can't just go out and start taking delivery of 220s and 321NEOs ahead of schedule. What is listed in the delivery schedule is best case, and to assume hiring anymore than best case aircraft deliveries is delusional. Accounting for attrition actually helps get closer to that number as I pointed out. In conclusion, all I'm doing is stating factual information with regards to hiring, aircraft deliveries, and attrition, with realistic expectation management for anyone on, or soon to be on, the JB seniority list.

If you can debate any specifics in any of my posts, or say how any numbers I have provided are inaccurate, I'd love to hear. I love getting proven wrong and learning.

Southerner

I didn't say that the numbers are wrong. I think it just comes across poorly when someone says "we are hiring 500" and you say, "but only adding "425" to the list. From my perspective, I don't care how much is added because I was an instructor, and what mattered then was throughput of the schoolhouse, not how many stick around after training. I'm not an instructor anymore, but that perspective persists.

It's just a different perspective. As senior as you are, most attrition is below you, so hiring matters less than list growth. I get it. For a new hire, that churn at the 2-3 year point matters more than how much the list ultimately grows. (At least until they get senior enough for the people leaving to be junior to them).

Bluedriver

First we need to agree that JB wants and probably believes it needs a West coast presence to help it compete against the massive networks of the big 4.

Most vividly the company's willingness to spend nearly $4 billion just a few short years ago. Then they pledged to build it organically. They've been on record to shareholders as to pursuing additional gate space in LAX and SFO (largely failed so far). I know you also know they spent considerable time (too much wasted time) studying a SJC build up. I've heard other things, but will keep them private.

It's pretty clear they want a West coast network/presence.

How can Moxy create a West coast network when JB can't (won't)? The West coast isn't exactly lacking in competition. Alaska, SWA, Delta, UAL and AA all have large and well established West coast networks, to varying degrees. JB is a mature cost airline. Getting WC customers to leave their usual airline of choice and to fly on Jet-Who for the same fare price on a large scale would be extremely difficult. JB no longer has enough of a cost advantage to enter and win by lowering fares and stimulating demand, especially on the West coast where fares aren't very high due to competitive saturation. They know that, and it's the main reason they tried to buy a West coast network for $4 billion.

JB, as you know, is also a risk-averse company who likes moderate/slow growth in it's existing focus cities, in a predictable and deliberate fashion. They are also having margin/cost/Wall Street problems. Rapidly growing a new focus city out West using a loss-leader fare strategy with a mature airline CASM just isn't in the cards for JB.

Moxy, on the other hand, could enter the West coast at year 1 start-up costs, for the entire airline. Everything at year 1, using the LOWEST cost CASM aircraft on the planet. DN, being a serial successful airline start-up guy, for the right return on investment (an agreement to buy Moxy for a great price after 5-10 years) or himself possibly having a return to JB plan would be able and willing to fund this West coast Moxy start-up as a JB partner. This would relieve JB of the cost and margin killing problem of creating a West coast network via low-fare stimulation as well as not burden JB with the additional CAPEX this network would require. This also allows JB to concentrate on it's trans-atlantic aspirations. JB could never do both a trans-atlantic expansion and a West coast expansion simultaneously, as you well know.

In addition to year 1 costs and the A220 industry leading CASM/customer experience, DN/Moxy would also benefit greatly by being fed traffic from JB's well established East coast network. That's a big advantage, and allowed by the pilots unlimited domestic codeshare scope clause.

There are no prefect solutions for a West coast focus city available, so Moxy would likely have to hub at ONT, SJC, LAS, PHX, SAN and/or PDX. Those aren't LAX or SFO or SEA, but those gates aren't (probably not) available to anyone. So it would be a secondary airport strategy.

Don't misunderstand me, as others have done. I'm not saying Moxy replaces JB on BOS-SJC or similar. But JB might fly BOS-SJC and connect that customer onto Moxy to get to ABQ or IDA or GTF. In other words, Moxy would start an intra-west coast network fed, in-part, by connections from arriving JB aircraft into Moxy's focus city(cities).

Probably to eventually merge with JB after the West coast network is established via ultra-low start-up CASM.

Or DN is gathering capital as we speak to take JB private and combine his A220 orders into JB's.

Or the unlimited domestic codeshare is intended for an Alaska partnership (the company demanded unlimited domestic codeshare for SOMETHING, I promise you that much).

What I do know is that JB and DN ordered the same exact model aircraft, at virtually the exact same time, firmed up the orders at virtually the exact same time, and all of this happened exactly when the pilot contract/scope clause was finalized and at the same time the company probably knew what it wanted to do with Europe. And as stated, I don't believe what DN has told us about his plans for Moxy (Moxy could just as well be symbolic of his plan to take JB private again).

Long post, sorry.

All my opinion, of course.

luke3

Great post, even though it's speculation i still found it very interesting food for thought. Where do you think the code-share partnership with JSX falls in JB's West Coast strategy? With the new routes being launched through the end of the summer we're starting to get a pretty decent west coast network, but i don't see much feed available except for 3 flights per day into BUR. Even then you need to drive to the other side of the airport to our hangar. I do see the occasional passenger that connected or at least booked through JB but most traffic seems to be local in nature.

pilotpayne

Hey interesting stuff I prefer reading this than the standard APC posts.

It would take DN a lot of moxie to take JetBlue private. The other interesting thing is I think and flyby posted it before is the chairman of the board Peterson is coming up on mandatory retirement due to age.

With MSG gone there is definitely a slow alignment going on at the top. I wonder how much it will change whatever strategy they have.

Flyby1206

Edit I hate ending on a page