Dan Wolfe, CEO and Founder of 9K has never flown for or worked for either AA or Jet Blue. You must be confused with someone else.

 

I am not talking Dan Wolfe. The guy is Dave B. That's who I was talking about. I guess I got it wrong. But Criag and others are the founders Dan is the face. Good company wish they flew bigger planes.

 

You PSA guys seem to get it. Many of the Envoy guys still have stars in their eyes and think they are somehow special and the apple of AAG's eye. Either that or they have guzzled so much company kool aid that they are totally oblivious to the regional world crumbling around them.

What you have described here is exactly how I believe it will play out once the wholly owneds reach critical mass in regards to staffing. There is no way AAG will allow flow to continue when new 175's are sitting on the ramp with no one to fly them. They won't even let an old 145 sit on the ramp idle if they want it to fly.

This is quickly coming to a head with all three of the WO's having serious issues getting enough new hires. 12 for the month of May is the number at Envoy when they need a minimum of 38 each and every month for the flow to continue to work. They are at 1840 pilots at Envoy now and they still have 35 CRJ's that are supposed to transfer to PSA. As you guys are well aware, these birds aren't going anywhere soon as PSA is sucking wind on the hiring front as well.

My belief is that lack of new hires on top of a few flows here and there combined with attrition already year to date has the company's undivided attention. Believe me, they will play hard ball and will bring the union in and dictate something along the lines of, "if you want the flow to continue in some form, you WILL play ball." I think that is likely to happen in the 4th quarter of this year. It could possibly go into the 1st quarter of 2017, but I believe things will be critical before then.

 

Will play ball how? Accept better pay rates in lieu of flow? Hardly makes sense given that's the crown jewel of their recruitment tactics. And people will just leave anyway be it for LCCs, other Legacies, etc.

I do get the sense that they're waiting for some catastrophe at another regional where they hope they can scoop up the pilots, but the fact is many won't want to start over at another regional.

 

No ill will towards AWAC but whats their plan this year? Isn't the extension up in April 2017? I think AA will end up renewing with PDT not being in any sort of position to take over the flying at AWAC, but what if they don't? What happens to them? Is AA holding out for that? Too many crazy variables right now. The 3 WOs are in serious trouble I do not know how they will pull it off over the next 18 months.

All of the guys who were FOs and furloughed at PSA years back are now becoming pretty marketable to leave for better pastures. That'll put a dent in things.


On a totally separate note, flew a 200 today with a new interior in it. By new I mean fresh leather and stuffing, not new as in matching anything AA. So I suppose they really are here to stay for the long haul

 

Q1 2018. AWAC has been around for 50 years. They adapt and make the best move for them so I wouldn't put too much into "they'll just wither and die" theories. Talk to any senior pilot there and you'll see that major announcements always come out of the blue when no one expects them. Sure, that sucks for staffing but that's what works for them.

 

Good. I hope they survive these strange times. When I first started this flying thing they were the regional of choice. By the time I was qualified...it wasn't the best choice for me. I was hopeful they would go to Delta last year, thought that would have been best for them. But who knows. I don't

 

The sky is not falling at the WOs. Every regional is having trouble with staffing. The regionals are becoming more balanced with similar upgrade times and less lateral moves. It's a regional wide problem and the more each regional shares this problem, the less threat of aircraft constantly being moved around.

Air Wisconsin is probably not going anywhere either. When their extension is up, AAG will probably give them another short term 3-year extension with a few less airframes based of what they can staff. Some of PSAs 200s could end up at Air Wisconsin to replace some of Wisconsin's older 200s which would probably benefits both pilot groups. A lot of Air Wisconsin's and PSA's 200s have more life left in them than several of the American Eagle E145s.

A 150 size fleet is probably no longer in the cards at PSA due to the pilot shortage. A ~115 sized fleet would still be great though especially if it was all 700/900s bringing up our payrates.

 

The 35 CRJ 700's most likely will go to Air Whiskey.

 

"likely"?

Nice baseless rumor bud. Hope it's a 1 for 1 with their 200s. I'd say the most "likely" place for them is Envoy.