14 going on 15 months and cannot hold a line in the only commutable base! Stay far away!!

 

May seniority 1178 total pilots

June seniority 1174 total pilots

There were 15 new hires so that gives us 19 total resignations.

I guess the flow lie, retention bonus lie, hotel allowance lie, quick upgrade lie, and abusive scheduling practices aren't filling the seats like they used to.

 

The new hire number is correct but there is no way to prove that resignation number is accurate without spending the time looking over every name on the list and finding out who's actual name was removed from month to month.

 

.Let's do some quick and (very) dirty math, given "current conditions".

* We have 1174 pilots on the seniority list.
* About half of those pilots are First Officers, (587).
* Upgrades are currently running at 4 per month.
* If all of those f/o's hang around long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 12.2 years to upgrade.
* If 75% of our current f/o's stick it out long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 9.1 years to upgrade.
* If only 50% of our f/o's stay long enough to upgrade, today's new hire is looking at 6.1 years 'till upgrade.

Your mileage may vary.

 

That is just ridiculous math.

Here are some facts...

In the last 2 years, PSA hired A LOT of Endeavor (and other) pilots with 8+ years of experience in the regionals and they all upgraded very quickly, if not immediately. Most of those have 1000 or so hours as CA, and about 8,000 hours total time. Those captains are starting to leave PSA in steady numbers for LCC's.

There are A LOT of FO's at PSA that are stuck in the right seat after 18 months and are looking for DEC slots at other airlines.

The current attrition is about 15 per month on average, but it would not take much for it to jump to 35-40 per month. If some LCC picked up a bunch of really good and experienced pilots that did 8 years with Endeavor and 2+ years with PSA, that could mean that PSA would lose 20 captains a month, if not more. Likewise, if some regional started offering DEC or Street Captain slots, we could lose 25+ FO's a month.

The attrition is bad at PSA right now, but it could get MUCH worse.

Management treats the pilots at PSA pretty badly. That is no secret. Once the flood gates open, there will be an exodus from here.

If this happens, time spent on reserve will fall to just a few months, and anyone with 1000 hours SIC will be able to upgrade.

It is all cyclical.

 

I think you are being over optimistic about the rate of people leaving on the captain side. The attrition is mainly from the middle to bottom part of the seniority list. Very few captains are leaving for LCC's, some have left for cargo, others to United and Delta and some to flow. Average in the top 30% of the list is more like 5 per month over the past 3 years. I base that on where I am now vs when I was hired.

The top 70-80 aren't going anywhere.

The folks from Endeavor mainly were mid 2015 upgrades, so they won't have 1000 TPIC for a while. I suspect some will bail once they do. The DEC's will tire of sitting reserve for eternity and some of them will leave too. Then of course some FO's will chase quick upgrades and such elsewhere.

It's definitely not 2-2.5 years that PSA advertises and its probably not 10 either. Who the hell really knows?

There is going to be a solid number entrenched in those captain slots though, that much I can guarantee. Most will wait for flow or a major only. Going to an LCC is a lateral move at best once you've upgraded. Not too many are going to jump at the chance to sling gear on reserve for less than they make now.

You have the 70-80 lifers at the top already. Then a good amount of older guys from Comair too. Lot's of variables to consider really when you think about it, for a finite number slots.

Do what works today, that's all you can really do. Expect the worst case scenario and make a decision.

 

+1^^^^^am with desert..71, I personally know of 5 ex PSA Capt, they left to Spirit, Southern, United, Corporate in FL, all of them got between 200 to 500 hrs PIC. The last one left on the 6 of this month, all CVG, don't know other bases.

 

Next months pilot lost will be interesting.

I know personally 3 pilots in CLT that are out this month


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The flow is helping the company with retention and attrition a lot more than you think. A lot of people won't admit it, but they don't have any apps out and waiting for the flow. I'm talking junior captains too. The upgrade time is currently 2.3 years, short enough to help with FO attrition also. A lot of FOs are holding out to be a captain for the first time in their life and don't have apps out. Street captains and 6 month upgrade captains might have apps out but a lot of them would already of been hired and wouldn't of come to PSA in the first place if they had competitive LCC qauls. They will probably stay tell they have 1000 hours PIC, which takes 2-2.5 years on reserve. Attrition is where the company wants it. An increase from 5 to 7 on the flow would result in the same amount of attrition and more predictability for the company.

 

Don't come here, I like being on reserve and don't want people below me to come in and push my seniority up to holding a line. Why would I want you to come here if it benefits me?