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Envoy Airlines Regional Airline

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Old 04-25-2016, 08:54 PM
  #2571  
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Originally Posted by dfwflyboy View Post
what happens if Envoy can't staff the growth or attrition. What happens if they start to become like Republic and cancel flights. Will AA continue to flow them at 30/month? or will the flows drip to a halt? Just wondering...

There will be a point where flowing will start to cancel flights...it's inevitable. Most likely will happen before new hires get to flow...Think about it.
A valid consideration that some want others to disregard. While April's hire numbers have been close to that consistently needed on a monthly basis for the next 5-6 years if todays class of Charlie Buckets plan to flow at the projected time, one month is not 66-72 months (5.5-6 years). The undeniable fact is that if Envoy cannot get 35+ new-hires each and every month for the next 66-72 months, it shrinks and shrinking airlines need fewer captains and also lose flying assignments.

It would be interesting to find out how many of this and next months new-hires are pipeline pilots which could be expected to elevate class counts periodically around typical end of semester times. It would also be interesting to see how many of those pilots will still be at Envoy a year from now. Envoy has to essentially pull off a long-term miracle to ensure present pilots flow to AA in the projected time frame and that cannot be denied.
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Old 04-25-2016, 09:00 PM
  #2572  
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Originally Posted by GodIsGood View Post
I'll tell you what happens. Envoy pilots get hired off the street at Delta, United, and American just like pilots at any other regional.
Yes, many indeed will do that in the future, but with Envoys below average upgrade times, Delta and United might be a tougher road with no 121 PIC. But that is the double-edge sword for Envoy as it only increases monthly attrition requiring even more pilots to keep the flow engine also running at that rate required to meet flow projections or...........again, Envoy shrinks and returns to an existence presently occupied by other regionals and one occupied by Envoy in the past.

It all really has to work perfectly and for over half a decade for today's 26 drops in the Envoy bucket to make it over the brim.
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Old 04-25-2016, 10:11 PM
  #2573  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
Yes, many indeed will do that in the future, but with Envoys below average upgrade times, Delta and United might be a tougher road with no 121 PIC. But that is the double-edge sword for Envoy as it only increases monthly attrition requiring even more pilots to keep the flow engine also running at that rate required to meet flow projections or...........again, Envoy shrinks and returns to an existence presently occupied by other regionals and one occupied by Envoy in the past.

It all really has to work perfectly and for over half a decade for today's 26 drops in the Envoy bucket to make it over the brim.
How in the world does Envoy have a below average upgrade time??? What kind of spiked Kool Aid are you drinking?
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Old 04-25-2016, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Duct Mon View Post
How in the world does Envoy have a below average upgrade time??? What kind of spiked Kool Aid are you drinking?
Below average as in, longer than the line at the DMV.

What is it now? 6 -7 year upgrade?
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Old 04-25-2016, 10:33 PM
  #2575  
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Next bid will put it at 2010 so it's at 8 but very close to being 6, there's only 80 guys from 2010 so another bid will make it 5, it will sit at 5 for some time as 2011 was a huge hiring year, however once 2011 is done which will take time, the guys hired today aren't very far from the 2011 numbers. Considering the climate of the industry we most likely will be better off over the next 3 years compared to our peers. Add in the flow to AA and time is finally on our side.
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Old 04-26-2016, 02:37 AM
  #2576  
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Originally Posted by dfwflyboy View Post
what happens if Envoy can't staff the growth or attrition. What happens if they start to become like Republic and cancel flights. Will AA continue to flow them at 30/month? or will the flows drip to a halt? Just wondering...

There will be a point where flowing will start to cancel flights...it's inevitable. Most likely will happen before new hires get to flow...Think about it.
What did AAG do the past couple of years with the planes we had that we couldn't staff? Did they stop the flow?
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Old 04-26-2016, 02:56 AM
  #2577  
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? Hasn't envoy had 65 hr lines on average the last year or so because the planes were given away too fast? Not a staffing issue
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Old 04-26-2016, 04:30 AM
  #2578  
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
A valid consideration that some want others to disregard. While April's hire numbers have been close to that consistently needed on a monthly basis for the next 5-6 years if todays class of Charlie Buckets plan to flow at the projected time, one month is not 66-72 months (5.5-6 years). The undeniable fact is that if Envoy cannot get 35+ new-hires each and every month for the next 66-72 months, it shrinks and shrinking airlines need fewer captains and also lose flying assignments.

It would be interesting to find out how many of this and next months new-hires are pipeline pilots which could be expected to elevate class counts periodically around typical end of semester times. It would also be interesting to see how many of those pilots will still be at Envoy a year from now. Envoy has to essentially pull off a long-term miracle to ensure present pilots flow to AA in the projected time frame and that cannot be denied.
Great, we are so glad that you come back to grace us with your presence along with your conspiracy theories. You do realize that you don't work here right?

Many out there are upset because the Envoy flow is working as advertised and pilots at other regional carriers compare themselves with an Envoy pilot and see that pilot heading to AA. Others are jealous as they spent 15 years or so at Envoy during the lost decade and had to wait till their 50's to flow. Most of the guys at Envoy now are late 20's, early 30's and will make it to AA by their mid 30's at the latest which gives them a full career at the largest major airline in the world.

Just get over it. The flow is working. We just had 35 new hires for April and are projecting even more for May. It seems that pilot candidates out there have gotten the word and are headed to Envoy as they realize that is the only way to AA. PSA and PDT also have flows but they are a drop in the bucket when you compare the numbers Envoy flows.

We are almost to 2010 hires for the next upgrade. The upgrade will continue dropping quickly after that. Yes, Envoy is the place to be.
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Old 04-26-2016, 04:42 AM
  #2579  
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When will that next bid be Ric?
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Old 04-26-2016, 05:09 AM
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Originally Posted by eaglefly View Post
Yes, many indeed will do that in the future, but with Envoys below average upgrade times, Delta and United might be a tougher road with no 121 PIC. But that is the double-edge sword for Envoy as it only increases monthly attrition requiring even more pilots to keep the flow engine also running at that rate required to meet flow projections or...........again, Envoy shrinks and returns to an existence presently occupied by other regionals and one occupied by Envoy in the past.

It all really has to work perfectly and for over half a decade for today's 26 drops in the Envoy bucket to make it over the brim.
You're out of touch with the legacies hiring realities. Talking to various United and Delta recruiters, all of the told me PIC is not required. They look at the overall picture of the person, not only PIC.

Delta specifically want pilots that have been loyal to their companies, more than 4 years in the same place. It doesn't matter if you're an FO or CA. They don't care if you're an FO because the upgrade times are being high, as far as you upgrade if you can you're good to go.
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