There are already 2 upgrade classes in November. An announcement now would likely be for the 3rd class in November.

I am not sure if they will wait and only have 2 in November, or just keep them coming every 2 weeks.

We have 125+ new hires either in class now or slated to start class between now and January 1st, so the large upgrade classes should start again fairly soon.

 

I heard there will possibly be a large upgrade class in December/January, and then to expect a couple of large upgrade classes in the spring as we begin bringing on more airplanes.

 

American Airlines Projected Retirements for 2016 - 2028

(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)

Roster Data Updated on: 11/1/2016

Year Total
11/3/2016 - 12/31/2016 - 68
2017 - 407
2018 - 541
2019 - 651
2020 - 782
2021 - 853
2022 - 874
2023 - 958
2024 - 930
2025 - 955
2026 - 901
2027 - 766
2028 - 665


The estimates previously released showed 2017-2019 quite a bit higher, but many of those retired early in 2016. I would expect this to continue, as many are not waiting until 65.

 

I know there are already 2, but they have been rolling every 2 weeks and not necessarily a number per month. With this trend, the next one would start on the 28th. And after the amount of people they've lost to delta and elsewhere, I'd assume they'd keep that 2 week trend and even expand the classes a little. But planning ahead has never been one of their strengths.

 

Interesting post. Yet, only 55 pilots flowed from PSA to American in 2016 (pilot group is 1200 ish); a year that Americian hired 600ish. Pay increases and bonuses may get a few more in the door for now, but net Captain gains to trigger additional flow numbers did not materialize for 2016. PSA career expectations underperformed in 2016. LOA 5 salesmen (ALPA) spoke of and projected 7-8 flows per month by the end of 2016. The company had to meet again in May to discuss the flow. That resulted in no increase. The "answers" for 2017 are from the same group(s). So while the American projected retirement information is of interest, it does not make a flat flow agreement look any different.

 

Negations have been ongoing since June. I wouldn't be surprised if it's tied to the critical coverage arbitration hence to long delay.

 

Agreed, and to your point, PSA still flows only 5 per month. PSA can not increase net Captain gains (62) over the course of a year just to trigger 1 additional flow. Critcal coverage arbitration is not associated with LOA 5 Career Enhancment II. What does this tell potential new hires? Since May (and for all of 2016) PSA has had a flat flow agreement tied up as you speculate with a completely seperate issue.

 

Unfortually they lied about the vacation. But you did drink that kool aid so I expect you to believe it. It's pretty clearly written in the contract it's based on years of service.

 

Vacations are based on years of service. You are absolutely correct. But, you are allowed to bid a vacation in the calendar year that you earn it. So, if you "earn" a vacation in November of a year, you can take it anytime previous to it in the same year.

We all bid for vacations at the same time (within a few weeks of eachother). If it were truly based just on years of service, you would bid only on your anniversary date.

The contract, and company, allow you to bid for a vacation in a year that you will earn it. So, if you earn 2 weeks of vacation anytime in 2017, then you are allowed to bid for 2 weeks of vacation in 2017. You can take them in January and February, even though your anniversary date is in November.

The only catch is, if you leave before your anniversary date, you have to pay back the time that you took that you didn't earn.

 

I agree that the AA retirement numbers really isn't tied to our flow in any way. The reason that they are of interest is to see what is happening at the legacy carriers. There are literally thousands of retirements in the next few years alone.

If you have a fairly clean record, a college degree, and put forth some effort, you will be able to get a job at a legacy carrier.

United and AA really haven't started hiring a lot yet. So far, this year, here is the hiring by airline:

American: 433
Delta: 1048
United: 473
Southwest: 579
FedEx: 296
UPS: 63

So far, that is a total of about 2,900 for 2016. In 2 years from now, it will be 5,000 a year. Not all will come from the regionals. Some will be from military. Others will be current 91/135 pilots. But the fact remains that in 5 years, the regionals will be decimated.